In the Red Sox 8-7 improbable comeback victory over the Tampa Bay Rays, in Game Five of the ALCS, Terry Francona was the man for the Boston Red Sox. Tito called a team meeting before the game and then demonstrated some major cojones by bringing in his closer Jonathan Papelbon to pitch the seventh and the eighth innings. Tito was channeling Bill James last night.
Red Sox advisor and baseball sabermetrician Bill James has long advocated that a closer should not only be saved for the ninth inning, but he should be used when the game is on the line in the seventh or eighth inning. With Manny Delcarmen struggling in the top of the seventh, Francona went to the pen and went with his ace. Papelbon wasn't perfect, as he allowed a two-run double to Rays center fielder B.J. Upton, but he was able to avert a major crisis in the seventh. Papelbon held the Rays to only two runs in the seventh, which proved to be the difference maker.
The Red Sox were able to produce four runs in the bottom of the seventh, with Dustin Pedroia's one-run double, and Big Papi's three-run blast off of Rays reliever Grant Balfour. Papelbon then returned to the mound to shut it down in the eighth and the Sox were looking at a mere three-run deficit. The momentum had changed and the psychological advantage went to the Sox with the hometown faithful feeling the Morgan Magic in the air. We know the rest as J.D. Drew pulled a Mr. October and sent both teams on flights to Tampa for Saturday's Game Six.
Tito Channeling Bill James
If you thought it made perfect sense to bring in Papelbon to relieve Delcarmen in the seventh, a lot of baseball people would say you're loco. The prevailing theory has been to save your closer for the ninth inning - to protect the lead or preserve a tie. Tito went against an obsolete book and followed Bill James theory to the Promised Land of Game Six.
Francona could have chosen to play it safe and gone with the rookie Justin Masterson to relieve Manny Delcarmen in the top of the seventh, but the Red Sox needed to stop the bleeding. Francona recognized that to have any chance at a comeback, he needed to use Papelbon.
In the Red Sox - Angels ALDS, Angels skipper Mike Scioscia saw things differently in Boston's series clinching Game Four 3 - 2 victory. He elected to go with Scott Shields and left uber-closer Francisco Rodriguez in mothballs. I described the circumstances surrounding Scioscia's decision in a previous post:
From: MLB Hardball Heaven: Game 4 ALDS Angels vs. Red Sox
Close Decision
Immediately, I questioned Angels skipper Mike Scioscia's decision to leave in relief pitcher Scott Shields to handle the bottom of the ninth. Shields had thrown twenty-eight pitches Sunday in the Angels 5-4 win in Game Three. In Monday night's Game Four, he had retired the side in order in the bottom of the eighth. Shields would be facing J.D. Drew, Jason Bay and Mark Kotsay in the ninth.
Was Shields fresh enough to go two innings? Was rookie reliever Jose Arredondo available? Arredondo threw twenty-eight pitches in Sunday's victory and possibly he was unavailable to Scioscia or his availability was limited.
My thought process is you bring in the best closer in baseball, Francisco Rodriguez, to shut it down in the ninth. Baseball sabermetrician, Bill James, has long decried how managers only use their closers in save situations and their reluctance to use them to get out of a jam in the seventh or eighth inning or in a tie situation. According to the gospel of baseball, the closer is needed to nail down the win.
Why was Scioscia reluctant to bring in K Rod to face Mark Kotsay or Jed Lowrie after Jason Bay had doubled in the bottom of the ninth? Bay was now in scoring position, at second, with one out. Evidently Scioscia was rolling the dice and hoping Shields would prevent the Red Sox from scoring in the ninth, and he would be able use K Rod to protect a possible Angels lead in the tenth, but was the risk worth it? In Scioscia's defense, K Rod had thrown thirty-three pitches Sunday night and his tank may have been near empty, but think back to former Red Sox closer Keith Foulke and the amount of innings he pitched to win the 2004 ALCS versus the New York Yankees. It was also the last effective season for Keith Foulke. Ultimately, Scioscia was confronted with a difficult decision.
Moneyball at Work
In the later innings, Coco Crisp, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz and J.D. Drew were the definition of Moneyball. Working the count, fouling off pitches, the Sox wore down Tampa Bay's relievers.
Coco's ten-pitch at-bat in the eighth inning, eventually knocking in Mark Kotsay with an rbi single, was a thing of pure baseball beauty.
Maddon's Magic
Rays manager Joe Maddon had some bad mojo working last night. Tampa Bay relievers Grant Balfour, Dan Wheeler and J.P. Howell were completely ineffective after a strong performance from starter Scott Kazmir.
Dan Wheeler may be feeling the effects of the three-plus innings he threw in Tampa Bay's extra innning victory in Game Two. Wheeler had nothing last night. Nuthin'! Joe Maddon would have had better luck putting Mitch "Wild Thing" Williams on the mound.
Greatest Comeback in Playoff History
Two words for the Boston Globe: Mookie Wilson
